No, your local bookie does not “know something you don’t” or have an inside scoop on the outcome of a game or match. Sportsbooks, like TonyBet, create odds and adjust lines to ensure the action is as close to 50/50 as possible. They want to mitigate the risk, so they balance both sides of the betting column. They take steps to even out the stakes and reduce the risk of losing millions on one side of the bet.
The Mental Aspect
It’s been days, and you still haven’t managed to win a bet to save your life. It’s day 7 of being stuck losing. What better way to recover than betting on many football games on Sunday, right? You are in a betting funk. It’s probably because you must look at the right trends or analyze the correct stats. You have only bet favorites to hit a few “easy” bets. Or, you have to bet on underdogs to win back what you lost. Step back and find the shared denominator. Just because you haven’t won lately doesn’t mean you are finally due. Consider taking a moment to reflect on how to prevent repeating past errors.
Injuries to a Star Player Will Give You the Edge
The night before the Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans game, the officials declare Tom Brady “out.” The line moves from Buccaneers -1.5 to EVEN. Public bettors take the Saints, but a 1.5-point movement is less significant than it seems. Because Brady is out, could you pay attention to his backup? Watch how much the line moves; oddsmakers adjust based on betting action. If the spread is still EVEN an hour before game time, it suggests that the public is betting on New Orleans. But the edge might still be with the Bucs.
I Bet the Better Team
Oddsmakers handicap lines to even the playing field for two teams in a game or match. Usually, the better Team is the favorite. But, the money line may need to be lowered. Or, it may be worth the risk for a small gain. Just being favored by 10.5 points does not guarantee a win. Upsets happen all the time. If you constantly bet on who you consider the better Team, you will lose more bets than you will win. The spread hurts the favorite. It helps the underdog. Don’t hesitate to take the points when everyone predicts a blowout.
Heavy Public Money Moves Lines
The majority of the time, it’s the complete opposite. Smaller dollar amounts are favored by the general public when placing bets. Casual bettors aren’t risking hundreds or thousands of dollars on a single game. 70% of bets are on one Team, but most money is on the other. Teamrp bettors do their due diligence and research before making a wager. They bet when confident and at the best value. The amount they risk winning often makes oddsmakers adjust the line. This stops other sharps from getting the best value.
The Sharps are the Only Reason for Line Movement
Although sharp money is a significant factor in the odds movement, it isn’t the only reason. Injuries to players and the environment can also cause line shifts. If heavy rain and wind are forecast for an NFL game on Sunday, the line on the game’s total will likely go down.